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Economic Forecast

Behind the Numbers

  • Overall, our September forecast for Washington State is similar to the forecast adopted in June.
  • Our oil price forecast continues to rely on the futures markets, primarily the Brent (North Sea) oil price but also the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark. The near-term futures prices for both WTI and Brent are lower than in June but they also decline less. The refiner’s acquisition price of crude oil in the fourth quarter is now expected to be $95 per barrel which is $5 less than the $100 in the June forecast.
  • Single-family housing construction was once again weaker than expected in the first quarter of 2014 according to the building permit data but overall construction was close thanks to stronger than expected multi-family construction.

Forecast Data

During a typical forecast cycle, the Chief Economist and staff of the Forecast Council (ERFC) meet with the Forecast Work Group to discuss the preliminary U.S. and state economic forecasts.

ERFC produces preliminary economic forecasts for the U.S. and Washington. The preliminary forecasts are then reviewed and discussed by the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors (GCEA) in the presence of the Governor and members of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

Once the final economic forecasts for the U.S. and the state are completed, work begins on the General Fund-State revenue forecast. The economic forecasts are completed first because data from the economic forecasts are used to produce the revenue forecasts.

 

 

  • November Economic Review Council Meeting on TVW