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Economic Forecast

Behind the Numbers

  • Overall, our final February forecast for Washington State is very similar to the forecast adopted in November.
  • As in November, oil prices are expected to decline gradually throughout the forecast.
  • In the two months since the November forecast was adopted, the Washington economy added 9,500 jobs which is 900 more than the 8,700 expected in the November forecast.
  • As in November, we assume a gradual decline in aerospace employment throughout the forecast. We continue to believe that this downturn will be relatively mild due to the large and increasing backlog of orders.
  • Washington housing construction rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2013 after a slump in the middle of the year.

Forecast Data

During a typical forecast cycle, the Chief Economist and staff of the Forecast Council (ERFC) meet with the Forecast Work Group to discuss the preliminary U.S. and state economic forecasts.

ERFC produces preliminary economic forecasts for the U.S. and Washington. The preliminary forecasts are then reviewed and discussed by the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors (GCEA) in the presence of the Governor and members of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

Once the final economic forecasts for the U.S. and the state are completed, work begins on the General Fund-State revenue forecast. The economic forecasts are completed first because data from the economic forecasts are used to produce the revenue forecasts.

 

 

  • November Economic Review Council Meeting on TVW