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Economic Forecast

Behind the Numbers

  • Overall, our June forecast for Washington State is similar to the forecast adopted in February. Washington employment growth is expected to grow 2.3% this year compared to 2.0% assumed in the February forecast.
  • Single-family housing construction was once again weaker than expected in the first quarter of 2014 according to the building permit data but overall construction was close thanks to strong multi-family construction.
  • As in February, we assume a gradual decline in aerospace employment throughout the forecast. We continue to believe that this downturn will be relatively mild due to the large and increasing backlog of orders.

Forecast Data

During a typical forecast cycle, the Chief Economist and staff of the Forecast Council (ERFC) meet with the Forecast Work Group to discuss the preliminary U.S. and state economic forecasts.

ERFC produces preliminary economic forecasts for the U.S. and Washington. The preliminary forecasts are then reviewed and discussed by the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors (GCEA) in the presence of the Governor and members of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

Once the final economic forecasts for the U.S. and the state are completed, work begins on the General Fund-State revenue forecast. The economic forecasts are completed first because data from the economic forecasts are used to produce the revenue forecasts.

 

 

  • November Economic Review Council Meeting on TVW