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Economic Forecast

Behind the Numbers

  • The forecast is similar to February’s forecast, although 2015 GDP is weaker, oil prices are slightly higher and Washington construction activity a bit stronger.
  • We expect the moderate pace of the economic recovery to continue in both the U.S. and Washington economies.
  • Downside risks to the forecast include declines in labor productivity, a reduction in exports due to a stronger dollar and a slowing Chinese economy, and weak consumer spending due to lackluster wage growth.

Forecast Data

During a typical forecast cycle, the Chief Economist and staff of the Forecast Council (ERFC) meet with the Forecast Work Group to discuss the preliminary U.S. and state economic forecasts.

ERFC produces preliminary economic forecasts for the U.S. and Washington. In September, he preliminary forecasts are then reviewed and discussed by the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors (GCEA) in the presence of the Governor and members of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

Once the final economic forecasts for the U.S. and the state are completed, work begins on the General Fund-State revenue forecast. The economic forecasts are completed first because data from the economic forecasts are used to produce the revenue forecasts.