Economic Forecast
Behind the Numbers
- The final March economic forecast reflects a more recent national forecast and more up-to-date state employment and wage data.
- We continue to forecast slow economic and job growth for both the national and state economies.
- Recent developments at the state level have been mixed relative to our November forecast. Washington employment has been very close to our forecast but federal fiscal policy has been more restrictive than expected, resulting in lower Washington disposable personal income, especially in 2013. On the plus side, the Washington housing market is rebounding faster than expected in the November forecast.
Forecast Data
During a typical forecast cycle, the Chief Economist and staff of the Forecast Council (ERFC) meet with the Forecast Work Group to discuss the preliminary U.S. and state economic forecasts.
ERFC produces preliminary economic forecasts for the U.S. and Washington. The preliminary forecasts are then reviewed and discussed by the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors (GCEA) in the presence of the Governor and members of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.
Once the final economic forecasts for the U.S. and the state are completed, work begins on the General Fund-State revenue forecast. The economic forecasts are completed first because data from the economic forecasts are used to produce the revenue forecasts.
- March Economic Review Council Meeting on TVW