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Economic Forecast

Behind the Numbers

  • The preliminary November economic forecast is very similar to the September forecast.
  • The September BEA release also reflected the annual revision of state personal income. Annual revisions are made “to incorporate source data that are more complete and more detailed than previously available.” The annual revision raised the estimate of Washington personal income in 2013 by $4.403 billion (1.3%) compared to the previously available estimate. The revision was more than accounted for by a $5.108 billion (7.9%) increase in the estimate for dividends, interest, and rent. According to the revised estimates, Washington personal income increased 2.5% in 2013 which ranked 10th fastest among the fifty states and District of Columbia.

Forecast Data

During a typical forecast cycle, the Chief Economist and staff of the Forecast Council (ERFC) meet with the Forecast Work Group to discuss the preliminary U.S. and state economic forecasts.

ERFC produces preliminary economic forecasts for the U.S. and Washington. The preliminary forecasts are then reviewed and discussed by the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors (GCEA) in the presence of the Governor and members of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

Once the final economic forecasts for the U.S. and the state are completed, work begins on the General Fund-State revenue forecast. The economic forecasts are completed first because data from the economic forecasts are used to produce the revenue forecasts.

 

 

    • June Economic Review Council Meeting on TVW