Behind the Numbers
- In the two months since the September forecast was adopted, the Washington economy 4,400 net new jobs, 5,200 fewer than the 9,600 expected in the forecast. We have also incorporated another quarter of Quarterly Census of Payrolls and Employment (QCEW) benchmark employment data. The new QCEW data and other revisions raised the estimated level of total employment in August 2013 by 2,900. As a result of the upward revisions to history and slightly weaker than expected growth, the net effect is 2,300 (0.1%) fewer jobs in October 2013 than expected in the September forecast. Private service-providing employment is 2,700 higher than expected and government employment is 400 higher but manufacturing employment is 2,000 lower than expected and construction employment is 3,400 lower.
During a typical forecast cycle, the Chief Economist and staff of the Forecast Council (ERFC) meet with the Forecast Work Group to discuss the preliminary U.S. and state economic forecasts.
ERFC produces preliminary economic forecasts for the U.S. and Washington. The preliminary forecasts are then reviewed and discussed by the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors (GCEA) in the presence of the Governor and members of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.
Once the final economic forecasts for the U.S. and the state are completed, work begins on the General Fund-State revenue forecast. The economic forecasts are completed first because data from the economic forecasts are used to produce the revenue forecasts.
- November Economic Review Council Meeting on TVW