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Forecast

Forecast Highlights

  • The updated economic forecast is slightly weaker than the November forecast, with lower U.S. GDP and Washington personal income. However, we expect the number of housing permits in the state to be higher than in the November forecast, which has a positive impact on construction employment and on revenue collections.
  • Uncertainty in the baseline continues to remain high, mostly due to on-going concerns about federal fiscal policy, Europe and China.
  • Forecasted GF-S revenue is now $32.541 billion for the 2013-15 biennium and $35.306 billion for the 2015-17 biennium.

Revenue Forecast

Revenue forecasts are to be submitted to the governor and legislature on or before November 20th, February 20th in even numbered years, March 20th in odd numbered years, June 27th and September 27th.

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council must approve the official, optimistic and pessimistic forecasts by an affirmative vote of at least four members. If the council is unable to approve a forecast before a required date the supervisor will submit the forecast without approval and the forecast shall have the same effect as if approved by the council.

Washington State is unique in this approach to revenue forecasting. The forecast is nonpartisan and is used by both the executive and legislative branches in budget preparation.