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Forecast

Forecast Highlights

  • Our current economic forecast is very similar to our November forecast, with the same muddle-through conditions expected for the rest of the biennium, along with a high degree of downside risk.
  • The Washington economy is recovering about as expected in the November forecast. There have been no major developments since November that have altered the outlook significantly. The state’s economy is narrowly outperforming the U.S. economy and we expect that trend to continue.
  • Forecast changes due to economic conditions, including revenue already collected, added $32.2 million, for a total increase of $95.7 million above the November forecast. General Fund-State revenue for the 2011-13 biennium is now forecasted at $30.284 billion.
  • The initial forecast of General Fund-State revenue for the 2013-15 biennium is $32.294 billion, an increase of 6.6 percent from the revenue of the current biennium.

Revenue Forecast

Revenue forecasts are to be submitted to the governor and legislature on or before November 20th, February 20th in even numbered years, March 20th in odd numbered years, June 20th and September 20th.

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council must approve the official, optimistic and pessimistic forecasts by an affirmative vote of at least four members. If the council is unable to approve a forecast before a required date the supervisor will submit the forecast without approval and the forecast shall have the same effect as if approved by the council.

Washington State is unique in this approach to revenue forecasting. The forecast is nonpartisan and is used by both the executive and legislative branches in budget preparation.